Winter Outlook: Wetter North, Drier South

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting a stark regional divide in weather patterns this winter, driven by an emerging La Niña expected to shape precipitation and temperature trends across the country.

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, wetter-than-average conditions are likely across the northern tier of the continental United States-from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes-as well as in northern and western Alaska.

In contrast, forecasters expect a broad swath of the southern U.S., stretching from the Four Corners region across the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and lower mid-Atlantic, to experience drier-than-usual weather.

“This winter, an emerging La Niña is anticipated to influence the upcoming winter patterns, especially our precipitation predictions,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center.

La Niña conditions, forecast to develop later this fall, typically push the winter storm track farther north. That pattern tends to leave the southern states warmer and drier, and NOAA experts say it could worsen drought conditions already affecting large portions of the country.

“Unfortunately, after a brief period in the spring of 2024 with minimal drought conditions across the country, more than a quarter of the land mass in the continental U.S. is currently in at least a moderate drought,” said Brad Pugh, operational drought lead with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “And the winter precipitation outlook does not bode well for widespread relief.”

Below-average temperatures are most likely in southeast Alaska this winter, with slightly cooler-than-normal conditions also favored from the Pacific Northwest to the western Great Lakes.